Article By: Dan Clark
Well it is that time of year again as the Oscars are once again upon us, and with The Oscars comes Oscar pools. Even if you didn’t know Best Animated Short was actually a category doesn’t mean you should give up the opportunity to win some cash. Typically when it comes to the Oscars the majority of winners have already been established, but this year is quite different. While there are certainly some locks most of the bigger awards are still up for grabs. I’m hoping this leads to an actually exciting Oscar night were we get plenty of upsets and surprises. I went through each category and picked out who I think will win. I’ll preface this article by saying I am not super confident with many of my choices so take my predictions with the littlest grain of salt possible.
Best Actor in a Leading Role
- Bradley Cooper (Silver Linings Playbook
- Daniel Day Lewis (Lincoln)
- Hugh Jackman (Les Misérables)
- Joaquin Phoenix (The Master)
- Denzel Washington (Flight)
My Prediction: Daniel Day-Lewis
Possible Upset: Hugh Jackman
Reasoning: Daniel Day-Lewis winning Best Actor is one of the few locks of the evening. It’s too bad for Hugh Jackman because in most years his performance in Les Mis would have won him the Oscar. However when you have a supremely well respected actor giving a great performance as an historical legend it’s a tough task to beat.
Best Actress in a Leading Role
- Jessica Chastain (Zero Dark Thirty)
- Jennifer Lawrence (Silver Linings Playbook)
- Emmanuelle Riva (Amour)
- Quvenzhané Wallis (Beasts of the Southern Wild)
- Naomi Watts (The Impossible)
My Prediction: Jennifer Lawrence
Possible Upset: Jessica Chastain
Reasoning: This is a two woman race between Jennifer Lawrence and Jessica Chastain. Though Emmanuelle Riva could pull off the super upset as this is most likely her last opportunity to win an Oscar. My money is on Lawrence. The acting branch of the Academy appears to be big fans of Silver Linings Playbook as it is nominated in each Acting category. They make up the majority of the Oscar voters so where they lean winners tend to follow.
Actor in a Supporting Role
- Alan Arkin (Argo)
- Robert De Niro (Silver Linings Playbook)
- Phillip Seymour Hoffman (The Master)
- Tommy Lee Jones (Lincoln)
- Christoph Waltz (Django Unchained)
My Prediction: Tommy Lee Jones
Possible Upset: Christoph Waltz
Reasoning: This is another category with no clear frontrunner. Everyone nominated has won an Oscar in the past, and some very recently. Tommy Lee Jones hasn’t given a worthwhile performance in awhile, and the Academy tends to like the comeback story. It is also impressive that he was able to make his presence know in a film dominated by Daniel Day-Lewis. That will help him stand out in many voters eyes.
Actress in a Supporting Role
- Amy Adams (The Master)
- Sally Field (Lincoln)
- Anne Hathaway (Les Misérables)
- Helen Hunt (The Sessions)
- Jacki Weaver (Silver Linings Playbook
My Prediction: Anne Hathaway
Possible Upset: Sally Field
Reasoning: This is the biggest lock of the night. The Oscar has had Anne Hathaway’s name on it since the moment the Les Mis trailer hit and we all heard Anne Hathaway perform “I Dreamed a Dream”.
Animated Feature Film
- Brave
- Frankenweenie
- ParaNorman
- The Pirates! Band of Misfits
- Wreck-It Ralph
My Prediction: Frankenweenie
Possible Upset: Wreck-It Ralph, Brave
Reasoning: Similar to Tommy Lee Jones, Tim Burton had a small comeback this year with Frankenweenie. Tim Burton has had a large impact on animation yet he has never won an Oscar for it. I predict the Academy will take advantage of this opportunity and give him the award. The other likely candidates are Brave and Wreck-It Ralph, but both have barriers blocking them from winning. Brave wasn’t to the caliber many Pixar fans expect, and the mostly older Academy voters won’t be able to relate to Wreck-It Ralph on the levels audiences did. So that leaves Frankenweenie as the most likely candidate.
Cinematography
- Seamus McGarvey (Anna Karenina)
- Robert Richardson (Django Unchained)
- Claudio Miranda (Life of Pi)
- Janusz Kaminski (Lincoln)
- Roger Deakins (Skyfall)
My Prediction: Roger Deakins (Skyfall)
Possible Upset: Claudio Miranda (Life of Pi)
Reasoning: I’m not sure if this is a prediction or this is me hoping this choice into existence. The fact that Roger Deakins has yet to win an Oscar is a travesty the Academy has the opportunity to fix this year. I’m hoping it finally happens.
Costumes Design
- Anna Karenina
- Les Misérables
- Lincoln
- Mirror Mirror
- Snow White and the Huntsman
My Prediction: Anna Karenina
Possible Upset: Les Misérables
Reasoning: This is a two movie race between Les Mis and Anna Karenina. I have gone back an forth a few times, but ended up going with Anna Karenina . It’s costumes are more bright and boisterous than Les Mis and typically the more flamboyant win this award.
Best Director
- Michael Haneke (Amour)
- Benh Zeitlin (Beasts of the Southern Wild)
- Ang Lee (Life of Pi)
- Steven Spielberg (Lincoln)
- David O. Russell (Silver Linings Playbook)
My Prediction: David O. Russell
Possible Upset: Steven Spielberg
Reasoning: The directing category is the most mindboggling it has ever been. The fact that Kathryn Bigelow, Tom Hooper, and Ben Affleck were not even nominated still makes no sense to me. Most often the Best Director winner and Best Picture correspond. I don’t see that happening this year. I went with David O. Russell because Silver Linings Playbook is an actor’s movie. Russell allowed the actors to dominate while his direction stayed mostly muted. Actors tend to appreciate that and vote for films that allow actors to demonstrate their talent. A perfect example of this would be when Tom Hooper won for King’s Speech over David Lynch. This year is ripe for surprises making the hard part picking out where they will happen. With no clear frontrunner and the best three candidates not even nominated I feel if a surprise happens it will happen here.
Documentary Feature
- 5 Broken Cameras
- The Gatekeepers
- How to Survive a Plague
- The Invisible War
- Searching for Sugar Man
My Prediction: How to Survive a Plague
Possible Upset: Searching for Sugar Man
Reasoning: The winner of the Best Documentary Feature is almost always a cause film with some sort of political, economical, or social agenda. That makes the likelihood of Searching for Sugar Man winning very slim. 5 Broken Cameras and The Gatekeepers both deal with the Israel and Palestine conflict so they cancel each other out. That leaves The Invisible War and How to Survive a Plague. The Invisible War was directed by Kirby Dick who also directed This Film Has Not Yet Been Rated which went after the methods of the MPAA. I could see many in the business holding a grudge because of that film so that’s why I went with How to Survive a Plague. A simple process of elimination.
Documentary Short
- Inocente
- Kings Point
- Mondays at Racine
- Open Heart
- Redemption
My Prediction: Open Heart
Possible Upset: Inocente
Reasoning: This is where Oscar pools are won and lost. The dreaded short categories. My method has been to read the synopsis of all the short docs nominated and pick the one about the Holocaust. This year there is no short about the Holocaust, but there is one about Rwandan children leaving their countries and homes to have high-risk heart surgery. I think the Osars voters would feel too guilty not to vote for it.
Film Editing
- Argo
- Life of Pi
- Lincoln
- Silver Linings Playbook
- Zero Dark Thirty
My Prediction: Argo
Possible Upset: Zero Dark Thirty
Reasoning: Not to give anything away, but I think Argo is going to walk away with a Big Award on Oscar night. With only one Acting Nominations the Academy will need to grease the rails enough to make that win seem legitimate. Also the opening sequence in Argo is nearly enough to earn it this win.
Foreign Language Film
- Amour
- Kon-Tiki
- No
- A Royal Affair
- War Witch
My Prediction: Amour
Possible Upset: A Royal Affair
Reasoning: One of the biggest locks of the night. One of these nominations is not like the others. It’s the one nominated for Best Picture.
Makeup and Hairstyling
- Hitchcock
- The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey
- Les Misérables
My Prediction: The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey
Possible Upset: Les Misérables
Reasoning: Honestly is the only film nominated with major Makeup and Hair work. Seems like legitimate reasoning right?
Music-Original Score
- Dario Marianelli (Anna Karenina)
- Alexandre Desplat (Argo)
- Mychael Danna (Life of Pi)
- John Williams (Lincoln)
- Thomas Newman (Skyfall)
My Prediction: Mychael Danna (Life of Pi)
Possible Upset: Dario Marianelli (Anna Karenina), Alexandre Desplat (Argo)
Reasoning: This is another hard category to figure. Certain scores I was certain were going to win this year weren’t even nominated. Looking at the ones that are nominated Mychael Danna’s score for Life of Pi stands out the most.
Music-Original Song
- “Before My Time” from Chasing Ice Music and Lyric by J. Ralph
- “Everybody Needs A Best Friend” from Ted Music by Walter Murphy; Lyric by Seth MacFarlane
- “Pi’s Lullaby” from Life of Pi Music by Mychael Danna; Lyric by Bombay Jayashri
- “Skyfall” from Skyfall Music and Lyric by Adele Adkins and Paul Epworth
- “Suddenly” from Les Misérables Music by Claude-Michel Schönberg; Lyric by Herbert Kretzmer and Alain Boublil
My Prediction: “Skyfall” by Adele Adkins and Paul Epworth
Possible Upset: “Suddenly”by Claude-Michel Schönberg; Lyric by Herbert Kretzmer and Alain Boublil
Reasoning: Once the Academy deemed Skyfall eligible for an Academy award they were basically announcing that Adelle won an Oscar.
Production Design
- Anna Karenina Sarah Greenwood (Production Design); Katie Spencer (Set Decoration)
- The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey Dan Hennah (Production Design); Ra Vincent and Simon Bright (Set Decoration)
- Les Misérables Eve Stewart (Production Design); Anna Lynch-Robinson (Set Decoration)
- Life of PiDavid Gropman (Production Design); Anna Pinnock (Set Decoration)
- Lincoln Rick Carter (Production Design); Jim Erickson (Set Decoration)
My Prediction: Anna Karenina
Possible Upset: Life of Pi
Reasoning: Anna Karenina is a period piece that is mixed with a classic stage show. The combination plays right into the hands of what the Academy adores.
Short Film-Animated
- Adam and Dog
- Fresh Guacamole
- Head over Heels
- Maggie Simpson in “The Longest Daycare”
- Paperman
My Prediction: Adam and Dog
Possible Upset: Paperman
Reasoning: Paperman has a distinct advantage as it played before Wreck-It Ralph so many people are already aware of it. However notoriety tends to work against you in this category as the smaller independent films tend to win. That’s why I went with Adam and Dog.
Short Film-Life Action
- Asad
- Buzkashi Boys
- Curfew
- Death of a Shadow (Dood van een Schaduw)
- Henry
My Prediction: Curfew
Possible Upset: Henry
Reasoning: Your guess is as good as mine. Curfew has been sweeping the festival circuit and even won at the International Short Film Festival. Seems like that momentum could propel it on Oscar night.
Sound Editing
- Argo
- Django Unchained
- Life of Pi
- Skyfall
- Zero Dark Thirty
My Prediction: Skyfall
Possible Upset: Zero Dark Thirty
Reasoning: The loudest film tends to win Sound Editing so that means the most likely candidate in my mind is Skyfall. Sometimes it is best not to over think these things.
Sound Mixing
- Argo
- Les Misérables
- Life of Pi
- Lincoln
- Skyfall
My Prediction: Les Misérables
Possible Upset: Skyfall
Reasoning: People’s initial reaction is to pick the same movie to win both sound awards. That’s not usually a wrong way to go, but I don’t see a sweep happening this year. Les Misérables mixture of live singing with a post production orchestra is the type of innovation that garners award attention.
Visual Effects
- The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey
- Life of Pi
- Marvel’s The Avengers
- Prometheus
- Snow White and the Huntsman
My Prediction: Life of Pi
Possible Upset: Prometheus
Reasoning: Life of Pi’s CGI is unlike anything in recent memory. Even those completely opposed to CGI have to credit its breathtaking ability to capture gorgeous imagery. It’s not often a film so CGI heavy is nominated for Cinematography, Production Design, and Best Picture. That shows you the Special Effects of Life of Pi are considered to be on an entirely different level than the other nominees.
Writing-Adapted Screenplay
- Argo
- Beasts of the Southern Wild
- Life of Pi
- Lincoln
- Silver Linings Playbook
My Prediction: Lincoln
Possible Upset: Argo
Reasoning: Even the Lincoln detractors, like me, have to confess the script of Lincoln is top notch. Having to work though the muddled language of 18th Century politics is quite the choir they took on. I see that choir paying off in the form of an Academy Award.
Writing-Original Screenplay
- Amour
- Django Unchained
- Flight
- Moonrise Kingdom
- Zero Dark Thirty
My Prediction: Zero Dark Thirty
Possible Upset: Django Unchained
Reasoning: Another two film race between Django Uncahined and Zero Dark Thirty. I have gone back and forth a few times with this one as well as I decide who to go with. I settled on Zero Dark Thirty mainly because it won the Writer’s Guild Award, and if the Academy was reluctant to award Inglourious Basterds I think they would be even less likely to award Django with all of its racial slurs. Don’t be surprised if there’s another super upset here with something like Moonrise Kingdom shocking the world.
Best Picture
- Amour
- Argo
- Beasts of the Southern Wild
- Django Unchained
- Les Misérables
- Life of Pi
- Lincoln
- Silver Linings Playbook
- Zero Dark Thirty
My Prediction: Argo
Possible Upset: Lincoln, Zero Dark Thirty, and Les Misérables
Reasoning: The smart money is on Argo as it has been gaining steam ever since it won at the Golden Globes, but I wouldn’t be surprised if a major upset occurs. When we have an Oscar class this strong it a makes the likelihood of an upset even greater. I am actually excited to see what happens.
